Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 00:41, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1754 American	LAX 09:14	RDU 17:23	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 462 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:54	RDU 17:42	29%	5%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	2h 03m Houston	IAH 08:15 → RDU 12:02UA 6148 · flown by Mesa	8h 11m	99%	88%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:34AA 2010	2h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 10:35 → RDU 12:09AA 3152	9h 01m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	9h 17m	99%	80%
United Details →	LAX 01:06 → EWR 08:59UA 2303	2h 13m Newark	EWR 11:12 → RDU 12:57UA 1410	8h 51m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	94%	79%
United Details →	LAX 08:15 → IAD 16:26UA 2268	2h 30m Dulles	IAD 18:56 → RDU 20:15UA 1322	9h 00m	99%	79%
Frontier Details →	LAX 01:11 → DFW 06:24F9 2274	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → RDU 12:36F9 3330	8h 25m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	8h 36m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	48m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	6h 57m	49%	37%
United Details →	LAX 15:15 → ORD 21:23UA 2794	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → RDU 01:55 +1UA 1989	7h 40m	57%	33%
United Details →	LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981	50m Newark	EWR 20:20 → RDU 22:02UA 464	7h 47m	48%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON