Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5410 LAX 09:17 → RNO 10:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1544 LAX 13:04 → RNO 14:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5410 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:17	RNO 10:56	15%	6%	0.8%	94%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	17%	5%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	17%	7%	0.8%	91%
DL 3929 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:59	RNO 23:28	17%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	17%	6%	0.8%	90%
WN 1466 Southwest	LAX 09:55	RNO 11:25	18%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 5411 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:55	RNO 20:39	19%	7%	0.7%	90%
UA 1544 United	LAX 13:04	RNO 14:35	20%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON