Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4001 at 14:11 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 4001 LAX 14:11 → SAN 15:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 1100 LAX 20:22 → SAN 21:19 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	27%	10%	0.8%	82%
DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	27%	8%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	30%	10%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:50	SAN 09:52	31%	13%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
UA 1068 United	LAX 10:32	SAN 11:29	34%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 582 United	LAX 16:27	SAN 17:24	35%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 1100 United	LAX 20:22	SAN 21:19	38%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON