Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1016 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 07:45 → SAT 12:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2686 LAX 18:59 → SAT 23:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 07:45	SAT 12:43	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:32	SAT 14:38	18%	8%	0.6%	84%
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	18%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 4962 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:43	SAT 01:49	22%	8%	0.6%	84%
DL 2686 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:59	SAT 23:54	24%	8%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON