Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2906 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2906 LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4130 LAX 18:21 → SLC 21:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2906 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:35	SLC 08:30	6%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 2042 Southwest	LAX 07:55	SLC 10:47	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1318 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SLC 10:10	10%	4%	0.7%	92%
OO 4629 SkyWest	LAX 09:36	SLC 12:41	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 1434 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SLC 12:45	17%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 1194 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:41	SLC 14:30	21%	4%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
DL 1647 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SLC 16:03	23%	5%	0.7%	87%
OO 555 SkyWest	LAX 16:34	SLC 19:37	26%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 2311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SLC 19:58	27%	6%	1.5%	78%
DL 1483 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:15	SLC 22:04	29%	8%	1.1%	86%worse than usual
F9 4130 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:21	SLC 21:23	33%	14%	1.6%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON