Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2514 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2514 LAX 07:20 → SMF 08:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 427 LAX 19:35 → SMF 21:06 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2514 Southwest	LAX 07:20	SMF 08:49	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3711 Southwest	LAX 08:55	SMF 10:27	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:29	SMF 11:15	14%	7%	0.6%	92%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	16%	6%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:32	SMF 11:08	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:13	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	18%	6%	0.6%	88%
OO 5424 SkyWest	LAX 22:37	SMF 00:14	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:05	SMF 13:32	19%	7%	0.6%	89%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	19%	6%	0.6%	88%
AA 4908 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:44	SMF 23:20	19%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	20%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 8929 Delta	LAX 14:02	SMF 15:28	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2075 United	LAX 18:58	SMF 20:37	29%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2536 Southwest	LAX 12:30	SMF 14:02	31%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 4627 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:50	SMF 17:28	33%	12%	1.1%	90%worse than usual
WN 2041 Southwest	LAX 17:25	SMF 18:56	39%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 3295 Southwest	LAX 22:10	SMF 23:41	42%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	LAX 19:35	SMF 21:06	42%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON