Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3060 SkyWest	LAX 09:32	STS 11:10	28%	10%	2.3%	no record
OO 3247 SkyWest	LAX 16:03	STS 17:41	31%	9%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 24m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	96%	88%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:58 → STS 12:58AS 1347	5h 58m	89%	64%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:00 → SEA 18:34AS 585	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 19:58 → STS 21:59AS 504	5h 59m	81%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	4h 52m	60%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON