Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5379 at 11:37, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:37	SUN 15:02	16%	7%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAX 14:11 → SFO 15:38UA 469	3h 17m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	79%	68%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	96%	65%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:31 → SEA 14:14AS 798	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 30m	94%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON