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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 392 LAX 09:39 → TPA 17:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 910 LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 392 United LAX 09:39 TPA 17:40 21% 7% 0.7% no record
DL 749 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:11 TPA 18:05 27% 5% 0.9% 80%
DL 910 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:34 TPA 06:16 28% 5% 0.9% 79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 54m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:58 → TPA 10:32AA 2516 6h 51m 84% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515 50m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 6h 58m 76% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON