tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 11:02, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest LAX 11:02 TUL 16:21 14% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 50m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 7h 58m 99% 98%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 30m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:44 → TUL 10:02AA 2348 7h 21m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:32 → ORD 11:50UA 580 3h 45m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 10h 10m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 2h 40m Houston IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:00UA 3991 · flown by Mesa 7h 50m 95% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748 2h 03m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 8h 32m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:10 → SEA 10:54AS 495 58m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 7h 22m 69% 51%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 19:30 → TUL 00:09 +1AA 3585 · flown by Envoy 5h 30m 69% 50%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457 1h 20m Chicago ORD 20:25 → TUL 22:17UA 2351 7h 27m 69% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON