Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 6296 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 6296 LAX 08:21 → TUS 10:03 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1079 LAX 21:58 → TUS 23:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6296 SkyWest	LAX 08:21	TUS 10:03	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 138 SkyWest	LAX 09:33	TUS 11:18	19%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 3776 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	TUS 15:50	22%	9%	0.7%	81%
OO 283 SkyWest	LAX 19:58	TUS 21:44	23%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:12	TUS 17:54	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	23%	10%	0.6%	82%
AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:25	TUS 21:02	24%	10%	0.6%	76%
WN 1079 Southwest	LAX 21:58	TUS 23:39	31%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON