tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6210 SkyWest LAX 17:19 XNA 22:43 19% 8% 0.7% no record
OO 6299 SkyWest LAX 10:51 XNA 16:20 20% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 3h 23m Houston IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 21m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 20m Houston IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:34AA 2010 1h 54m Philadelphia PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA 10h 23m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 13:30 → XNA 17:14DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:57AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → XNA 11:00AA 2025 8h 19m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 01m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:24 → CLT 17:14AA 3175 51m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → XNA 19:36AA 4087 · flown by Envoy 8h 12m 64% 47%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 51m Atlanta ATL 19:28 → XNA 20:24DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 7h 26m 57% 35%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:47 → ORD 18:06AA 2891 54m Chicago ORD 19:00 → XNA 20:53AA 3578 · flown by Envoy 7h 06m 42% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON