Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 550 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 550 LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3453 LGA 16:57 → ATL 19:31 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:53	ATL 10:17	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 09:15	ATL 11:54	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	8%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:56	ATL 12:20	10%	3%	0.8%	84%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 11:57	ATL 14:35	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:59	ATL 14:31	12%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:38	14%	5%	1.1%	59%
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	14%	7%	2.0%	63%
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:59	ATL 15:26	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	16%	7%	0.9%	81%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:00	ATL 16:38	16%	6%	0.8%	76%
YX 4346 Republic	LGA 16:31	ATL 19:09	18%	7%	1.3%	no record
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	18%	7%	0.9%	70%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	19%	7%	0.9%	76%
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	22%	8%	1.2%	68%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	23%	9%	1.1%	71%
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	24%	9%	1.1%	66%
YX 4348 Republic	LGA 18:50	ATL 21:24	26%	8%	1.4%	no record
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 16:57	ATL 19:31	44%	21%	2.1%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON