Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5638 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 5638 LGA 06:56 → BNA 08:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2527 LGA 19:36 → BNA 21:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:56	BNA 08:28	5%	2%	1.1%	90%
WN 159 Southwest	LGA 07:15	BNA 08:38	7%	3%	1.1%	no record
YX 4370 Republic	LGA 09:08	BNA 10:39	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:42	BNA 13:14	12%	4%	1.3%	70%
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:29	BNA 12:01	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	14%	5%	1.1%	82%
WN 3089 Southwest	LGA 10:30	BNA 11:53	16%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:02	BNA 16:39	17%	6%	1.5%	65%
WN 422 Southwest	LGA 13:30	BNA 14:53	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:46	BNA 21:10	26%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	LGA 15:55	BNA 17:19	31%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 980 American	LGA 20:19	BNA 21:43	31%	13%	1.3%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	LGA 19:36	BNA 21:00	34%	14%	1.3%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON