Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5793 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5793 LGA 06:59 → BOS 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 5746 LGA 18:59 → BOS 20:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:59	BOS 08:23	5%	2%	1.1%	96%
YX 4628 Republic	LGA 09:03	BOS 10:06	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 5591 Republic	LGA 09:08	BOS 10:26	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:00	BOS 12:22	13%	4%	1.1%	81%
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BOS 13:21	14%	4%	1.1%	80%
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:14	BOS 11:17	15%	4%	1.3%	86%
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:00	BOS 14:23	16%	5%	1.2%	80%
DL 5839 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 23:22	BOS 00:32	18%	6%	1.7%	78%
AA 1050 American	LGA 09:56	BOS 11:05	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:00	BOS 15:29	20%	7%	1.3%	80%
YX 4502 Republic	LGA 21:19	BOS 22:33	21%	7%	1.5%	no record
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:00	BOS 16:33	21%	8%	1.2%	63%
AA 1571 American	LGA 11:29	BOS 12:37	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	BOS 17:37	23%	9%	1.4%	58%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:00	BOS 18:40	24%	9%	1.4%	69%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:39	BOS 19:21	25%	10%	1.3%	59%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	BOS 19:06	25%	9%	1.2%	55%
DL 5800 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:00	BOS 21:14	26%	7%	1.4%	72%
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:00	BOS 19:40	26%	10%	1.4%	65%
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:12	BOS 20:26	28%	10%	1.6%	63%
DL 1739 Delta	LGA 21:02	BOS 22:07	29%	11%	0.8%	no record
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	BOS 20:45	29%	10%	1.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON