Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5818 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 5818 LGA 07:47 → BUF 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 843 LGA 15:49 → BUF 17:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5818 Republic	LGA 07:47	BUF 09:16	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 4521 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	BUF 21:07	14%	7%	1.5%	74%
YX 5796 Republic	LGA 21:36	BUF 23:05	15%	6%	1.5%	no record
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:15	BUF 17:44	16%	6%	1.6%	81%
AA 843 American	LGA 15:49	BUF 17:14	25%	10%	1.3%	no record
DL 5366 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:45	BUF 09:13	17%	6%	2.4%	83%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:18	BUF 13:50	20%	6%	6.7%	80%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:45	BUF 17:30	34%	19%	11.1%	66%
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON