Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	5h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic	3h 28m Boston	BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	7h 01m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	7h 16m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	8h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic	2h 58m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	97%	80%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733	7h 09m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → BWI 18:19DL 2565	7h 09m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic	55m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	4h 29m	73%	60%
American Details →	LGA 16:58 → MIA 19:54AA 3135	1h 18m Miami	MIA 21:12 → BWI 23:52AA 3216	6h 54m	69%	40%
United Details →	LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 19:41 → BWI 22:40UA 220	6h 15m	67%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON