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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946 8h 33m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 09:31 → BZN 11:44AA 2415 7h 44m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:00DL 2313 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 46m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → LGA 09:55 → DEN 12:07UA 716 1h 37m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 38m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → BZN 15:20AA 947 10h 50m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:47 → ORD 09:29AA 392 1h 03m Chicago ORD 10:32 → BZN 12:56AA 1080 7h 09m 90% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON