Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3084 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3084 LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2232 LGA 16:56 → CLT 18:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3084 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	CLT 07:58	5%	3%	1.7%	96%
YX 5776 Republic	LGA 06:30	CLT 08:30	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
AA 3279 American Flight history →	LGA 06:52	CLT 08:54	6%	3%	1.6%	92%
YX 5719 Republic	LGA 09:25	CLT 11:34	9%	3%	1.4%	no record
YX 5771 Republic	LGA 11:59	CLT 14:00	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1150 American Flight history →	LGA 12:10	CLT 14:14	13%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 2036 American Flight history →	LGA 10:00	CLT 11:54	14%	5%	1.2%	89%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	LGA 14:31	CLT 16:53	18%	8%	1.4%	64%
DL 5705 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:40	CLT 21:40	20%	6%	1.5%	84%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	CLT 20:33	26%	11%	1.6%	67%
AA 2232 American	LGA 16:56	CLT 18:51	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:51	CLT 08:56	12%	4%	8.5%	88%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:00	CLT 11:10	21%	6%	6.0%	79%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:06	CLT 19:32	32%	17%	9.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON