Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4604 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4604 LGA 06:43 → CMH 08:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4624 LGA 20:44 → CMH 22:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4604 Republic	LGA 06:43	CMH 08:39	4%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:24	CMH 10:20	6%	2%	1.1%	86%
YX 4381 Republic	LGA 10:44	CMH 12:40	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	CMH 15:06	11%	4%	1.0%	76%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:43	CMH 13:39	12%	5%	1.0%	79%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:30	CMH 16:32	14%	6%	1.2%	82%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:29	CMH 19:38	17%	7%	1.2%	77%
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	18%	8%	1.2%	75%
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	20%	8%	1.3%	71%
YX 4624 Republic	LGA 20:44	CMH 22:44	20%	7%	1.3%	no record
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:56	CMH 13:45	44%	18%	6.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON