Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4487 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4487 LGA 06:28 → DCA 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5724 LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:28	DCA 07:59	4%	2%	1.1%	85%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	8%	2%	1.1%	83%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:58	DCA 09:29	8%	2%	1.2%	36%
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:11	DCA 10:42	9%	3%	1.3%	61%
YX 5874 Republic	LGA 23:30	DCA 01:01	13%	6%	2.6%	no record
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:30	DCA 12:01	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	15%	4%	1.3%	78%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:28	DCA 14:59	17%	6%	1.6%	76%
YX 5827 Republic	LGA 21:25	DCA 22:55	22%	8%	2.4%	no record
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:20	DCA 16:51	24%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:13	DCA 18:44	24%	7%	2.5%	74%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	24%	9%	2.5%	62%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	24%	7%	1.9%	61%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:51	DCA 21:21	24%	9%	3.0%	91%worse than usual
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	27%	11%	3.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON