Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2531 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2531 LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2534 LGA 16:40 → DEN 18:50 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2531 Southwest	LGA 06:55	DEN 09:04	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 644 United	LGA 07:42	DEN 09:55	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	11%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 09:55	DEN 12:07	15%	4%	0.8%	95%
WN 2955 Southwest	LGA 09:40	DEN 11:49	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	19%	7%	1.0%	87%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	31%	14%	0.9%	60%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	31%	11%	1.4%	61%
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:04	31%	13%	1.0%	71%
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:24	DEN 17:38	31%	13%	1.0%	no record
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:20	DEN 16:41	33%	11%	1.4%	71%
WN 2535 Southwest	LGA 20:55	DEN 23:06	36%	14%	1.4%	no record
WN 2534 Southwest	LGA 16:40	DEN 18:50	48%	17%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 03m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 10m	93%	78%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	48m Chicago	ORD 08:37 → DEN 10:11UA 318	6h 01m	83%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON