Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Des Moines on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:16	DSM 20:38	25%	12%	1.1%	67%
DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:02	DSM 19:15	35%	18%	5.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 14m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 53m	99%	78%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 09:09 → DSM 10:37AA 2962	5h 37m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	98%	78%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:59 → DSM 10:18UA 466	5h 08m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	50m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 39m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:21 → DFW 21:05AA 1043	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371	6h 37m	66%	34%
United Details →	LGA 18:36 → ORD 20:10UA 598	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	5h 20m	65%	31%
American Details →	LGA 19:51 → DCA 21:21AA 4473 · flown by Republic	50m Washington	DCA 22:11 → DSM 00:03 +1AA 5432 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	35%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON