Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1231 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1231 LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1014 LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1231 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DTW 07:55	4%	2%	1.2%	96%
DL 1823 Delta	LGA 07:37	DTW 09:27	7%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 1078 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:25	DTW 11:24	9%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:33	DTW 13:39	10%	4%	1.1%	73%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:50	DTW 14:46	15%	5%	1.0%	81%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:29	DTW 16:34	17%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DTW 19:23	17%	7%	1.1%	75%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	19%	7%	1.1%	74%
AA 4598 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:44	DTW 22:49	23%	8%	1.5%	67%
DL 1014 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	DTW 22:51	26%	8%	1.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON