Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4720 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4720 LGA 08:54 → GSO 10:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest AA 4577 LGA 20:29 → GSO 22:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:54	GSO 10:47	8%	3%	1.2%	59%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:27	GSO 17:27	15%	7%	1.3%	67%
AA 4577 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	GSO 22:23	20%	9%	1.9%	72%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:15	GSO 18:22	31%	12%	7.7%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:35	GSO 22:51	36%	24%	22.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON