Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 575 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 LGA 05:56 → IAH 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2133 LGA 20:22 → IAH 23:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 575 United	LGA 05:56	IAH 08:45	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	10%	4%	1.1%	89%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 08:03	IAH 10:53	12%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:42	IAH 15:37	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	17%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	18%	6%	0.9%	73%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	19%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	20%	8%	0.7%	64%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	20%	10%	1.1%	65%
UA 1179 United	LGA 18:05	IAH 21:10	21%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	22%	9%	0.7%	62%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:22	IAH 23:17	23%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	55m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	5h 33m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON