tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → BOS 08:23DL 5793 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 04m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 19m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 15:04DL 2974 10h 09m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 1h 26m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 8h 10m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:30 → BNA 12:04DL 5438 · flown by Endeavor 2h 55m Nashville BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 9h 40m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300 47m Miami MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 9h 50m 55% 36%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 50m Chicago ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967 8h 15m 56% 25%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 59m Chicago ORD 19:07 → LAX 21:26AA 3063 8h 26m 60% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON