Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4644 at 18:40, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4644 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:40	LIT 21:13	23%	10%	1.5%	68%
DL 4902 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:29	LIT 19:45	37%	18%	6.4%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 12m	99%	84%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy	7h 45m	99%	80%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:36 → LIT 12:59AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083	8h 41m	100%	78%
American Details →	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 17:02 → LIT 18:13AA 5672 · flown by PSA	7h 03m	98%	78%
United Details →	LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674	1h 19m Houston	IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa	7h 01m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → LIT 17:55DL 3025	7h 56m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 17:28 → DFW 20:11AA 2327	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy	6h 07m	71%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON