Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3995 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3995 LGA 08:50 → MCI 10:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3996 LGA 21:05 → MCI 23:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3995 Southwest	LGA 08:50	MCI 10:57	8%	3%	2.9%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCI 17:59	21%	11%	2.0%	60%
DL 563 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCI 22:21	24%	14%	2.0%	67%
WN 1163 Southwest	LGA 14:30	MCI 16:39	25%	11%	1.9%	no record
WN 3996 Southwest	LGA 21:05	MCI 23:21	28%	13%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON