Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2913 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2913 LGA 06:02 → MDW 07:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4845 LGA 17:45 → MDW 19:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2913 Southwest	LGA 06:02	MDW 07:21	5%	2%	1.9%	no record
WN 4430 Southwest	LGA 07:27	MDW 08:46	7%	3%	2.0%	no record
WN 2542 Southwest	LGA 10:07	MDW 11:26	16%	5%	2.9%	no record
WN 3457 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 13:21	MDW 14:40	24%	9%	7.0%	91%worse than usual
WN 942 Southwest	LGA 15:16	MDW 16:35	32%	11%	7.5%	no record
WN 2547 Southwest	LGA 22:04	MDW 23:19	36%	17%	3.5%	no record
WN 2546 Southwest	LGA 21:30	MDW 22:51	37%	15%	3.3%	no record
WN 4845 Southwest	LGA 17:45	MDW 19:04	38%	17%	6.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON