Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5848 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 5848 LGA 08:45 → MEM 10:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5848 Republic	LGA 08:45	MEM 10:45	9%	2%	1.4%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:12	MEM 14:12	13%	4%	1.3%	78%
YX 5605 Republic	LGA 13:59	MEM 16:00	14%	5%	1.4%	no record
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:52	MEM 21:47	20%	7%	1.5%	85%
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	24%	7%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON