Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3088 LGA 18:46 → MIA 22:00 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	7%	3%	1.3%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	12%	4%	2.3%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	13%	3%	2.3%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 08:00	MIA 11:15	17%	3%	2.2%	86%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	21%	5%	5.2%	76%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	30%	8%	6.2%	77%
AA 2378 American	LGA 11:09	MIA 14:05	31%	8%	6.9%	no record
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	32%	14%	2.3%	59%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	33%	12%	2.0%	63%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:02	MIA 15:58	34%	9%	5.5%	68%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	35%	14%	2.2%	58%
AA 845 American	LGA 19:29	MIA 22:24	38%	14%	2.1%	no record
AA 2525 American	LGA 16:15	MIA 19:16	39%	13%	2.0%	no record
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 16:58	MIA 19:54	40%	14%	2.3%	63%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:46	MIA 22:00	40%	14%	2.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON