Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5613 LGA 11:10 → MKE 12:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest YX 5612 LGA 15:43 → MKE 17:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5613 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:10	MKE 12:39	11%	5%	1.6%	57%
DL 5780 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:35	MKE 22:30	17%	8%	1.9%	76%
YX 5612 Republic	LGA 15:43	MKE 17:12	17%	7%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON