Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 5624 at 12:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 5624 LGA 12:57 → MSN 14:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4338 LGA 18:29 → MSN 20:09 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5624 Republic	LGA 12:57	MSN 14:35	12%	5%	1.6%	no record
DL 5611 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:37	MSN 19:16	22%	9%	2.1%	55%
YX 4338 Republic	LGA 18:29	MSN 20:09	24%	11%	2.3%	no record
DL 5033 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:45	MSN 14:19	24%	11%	4.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON