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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 58m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 10h 02m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 30m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 55m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 10h 31m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:00 → ATL 16:38DL 988 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 10h 50m 99% 63%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 13:21 → MDW 14:40WN 3457 3h 30m Chicago MDW 18:10 → ONT 20:29WN 2947 10h 08m 100% 55%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695 10h 55m 98% 53%
AmericanDetails → LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → ONT 19:00AA 3006 8h 52m 94% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:00 → DFW 17:05AA 1056 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → ONT 19:00AA 3006 8h 00m 73% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON