Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2389 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2389 LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 598 LGA 18:36 → ORD 20:10 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	6%	3%	1.3%	89%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ORD 08:31	7%	5%	1.6%	81%
AA 1427 American	LGA 06:00	ORD 07:34	8%	4%	2.2%	no record
AA 1263 American	LGA 06:55	ORD 08:29	8%	5%	2.0%	no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:45	ORD 10:23	10%	5%	1.7%	80%
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 07:47	ORD 09:29	10%	5%	2.2%	87%
UA 1008 United	LGA 07:20	ORD 08:53	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2223 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	ORD 11:06	15%	6%	2.5%	88%
UA 1166 United	LGA 08:12	ORD 09:39	15%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 477 United	LGA 09:07	ORD 10:39	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	18%	8%	1.8%	80%
AA 855 American	LGA 10:31	ORD 12:04	20%	9%	2.6%	no record
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	20%	8%	2.6%	74%
UA 2015 United	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:02	23%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	25%	14%	2.3%	55%
AA 386 American	LGA 12:42	ORD 14:14	25%	13%	4.2%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	LGA 13:28	ORD 15:12	28%	15%	2.3%	74%
AA 2841 American	LGA 21:27	ORD 23:01	31%	17%	2.9%	no record
UA 775 United	LGA 21:45	ORD 23:17	31%	17%	2.0%	no record
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	32%	18%	2.1%	59%
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	33%	21%	3.4%	61%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	36%	20%	2.5%	66%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	36%	19%	2.8%	64%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	36%	21%	2.4%	62%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	37%	22%	2.6%	57%
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:16	ORD 15:49	38%	20%	3.6%	no record
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	39%	21%	2.1%	47%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	39%	19%	3.7%	64%
UA 1442 United	LGA 14:31	ORD 16:12	41%	20%	3.0%	no record
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	42%	21%	2.6%	53%
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 18:18	ORD 20:04	44%	26%	4.4%	38%
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:31	ORD 21:03	46%	24%	2.3%	60%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:28	ORD 19:02	49%	24%	2.4%	no record
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:36	ORD 20:10	50%	28%	2.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON