Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4431 LGA 09:09 → ORF 10:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4589 LGA 20:29 → ORF 22:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4431 Republic	LGA 09:09	ORF 10:39	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:57	ORF 14:27	13%	4%	1.5%	78%
AA 4589 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	ORF 22:04	19%	7%	2.0%	66%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:29	ORF 14:04	23%	11%	7.3%	77%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:25	ORF 09:51	26%	10%	5.0%	74%
DL 5332 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:55	ORF 22:52	37%	13%	16.7%	63%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:48	ORF 18:33	40%	16%	7.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON