Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4654 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 4654 LGA 08:35 → PIT 10:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4579 LGA 18:54 → PIT 20:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:35	PIT 10:24	4%	2%	0.9%	83%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	8%	4%	1.1%	86%
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:00	PIT 11:38	9%	4%	1.1%	69%
YX 4538 Republic	LGA 13:38	PIT 15:15	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	10%	5%	1.2%	72%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:02	PIT 20:40	13%	5%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:54	PIT 20:20	15%	5%	1.1%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON