Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 09:54, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:54	PNS 11:48	13%	4%	1.1%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640	5h 48m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	7h 04m	99%	78%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 10:42 → PNS 13:05UA 2492	7h 55m	100%	78%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → PNS 10:12AA 2476	5h 12m	96%	75%
American Details →	LGA 16:58 → MIA 19:54AA 3135	3h 14m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	8h 01m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:00 → ATL 16:38DL 988	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	7h 04m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:46 → MIA 22:00AA 3088	1h 08m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	6h 13m	62%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON