Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4457 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4457 LGA 07:53 → RIC 09:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5791 LGA 20:47 → RIC 22:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4457 Republic	LGA 07:53	RIC 09:26	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 5799 Republic	LGA 07:46	RIC 09:19	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 4429 Republic	LGA 11:03	RIC 12:36	13%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:59	RIC 18:43	18%	7%	1.9%	76%
YX 5785 Republic	LGA 15:25	RIC 16:58	18%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 4345 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:29	RIC 22:58	20%	8%	2.1%	67%
YX 5784 Republic	LGA 17:44	RIC 19:17	21%	7%	2.1%	no record
YX 5791 Republic	LGA 20:47	RIC 22:20	24%	8%	2.4%	no record
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:36	RIC 12:14	24%	8%	7.0%	76%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	RIC 17:19	24%	8%	14.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON