tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → BOS 08:23DL 5793 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 10h 35m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 57m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:29 → IAD 11:55UA 6242 · flown by Mesa 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 09m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:52 → CLT 08:54AA 3279 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 11h 05m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 02m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 33m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 09:33 → SFO 12:08AA 2428 9h 08m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:58 → MIA 19:54AA 3135 56m Miami MIA 20:50 → SFO 23:55AA 2347 9h 57m 53% 29%
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:28 → ORD 15:12UA 1967 50m Chicago ORD 16:02 → SFO 18:33UA 2437 8h 05m 64% 29%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 1h 02m Chicago ORD 19:10 → SFO 22:10AA 2856 9h 10m 62% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON