tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 1h 30m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 00m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → LGA 08:03 → IAH 10:53UA 2371 1h 40m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 9h 17m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 06m Houston IAH 20:07 → SNA 21:40UA 326 10h 40m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 51m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 11m 89% 71%
UnitedDetails → LGA 09:55 → DEN 12:07UA 716 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 8h 01m 92% 70%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:34 → SNA 13:52AA 2465 10h 22m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:28 → DFW 20:11AA 2327 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 7h 56m 73% 49%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:59 → DEN 19:35UA 2834 57m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 8h 02m 68% 46%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156 1h 28m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 8h 54m 72% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON