tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:28 SRQ 13:33 16% 5% 2.1% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 29m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 8h 45m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:28 → DCA 07:59AA 4487 · flown by Republic 57m Washington DCA 08:56 → SRQ 11:54AA 2584 5h 26m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:56 → ATL 12:20DL 989 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 7h 17m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452 5h 10m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 02m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 52m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968 51m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 5h 52m 70% 51%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:46 → MIA 22:00AA 3088 54m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 13m 52% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON