Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3363 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3363 LGA 06:05 → STL 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2552 LGA 18:30 → STL 20:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3363 Southwest	LGA 06:05	STL 07:42	6%	1%	1.6%	no record
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:59	STL 11:40	12%	3%	1.5%	80%
WN 3817 Southwest	LGA 12:00	STL 13:40	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:55	STL 15:36	17%	5%	1.6%	65%
YX 4449 Republic	LGA 14:05	STL 15:55	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	26%	10%	1.7%	67%
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 18:42	STL 20:27	27%	9%	1.7%	70%
WN 2551 Southwest	LGA 15:00	STL 16:40	29%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 2552 Southwest	LGA 18:30	STL 20:11	37%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON