Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2531 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2531 LGA 07:10 → TPA 10:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 508 LGA 16:37 → TPA 19:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	TPA 10:01	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1976 American	LGA 07:59	TPA 11:02	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	TPA 15:28	17%	6%	0.9%	85%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:40	TPA 13:28	17%	5%	1.4%	79%
DL 2404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:39	TPA 18:54	27%	9%	0.9%	74%
DL 2433 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	TPA 22:15	31%	11%	1.1%	62%
AA 508 American Flight history →	LGA 16:37	TPA 19:43	35%	11%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON