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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet 5h 27m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999 3h 20m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 7h 08m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:47 → ORD 09:29AA 392 2h 49m Chicago ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 6h 45m 98% 48%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156 3h 09m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 7h 12m 91% 35%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 18:36 → ORD 20:10UA 598 1h 16m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 5h 01m 66% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON