Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:53 → ATL 10:17DL 364	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 07m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:56 → ATL 12:20DL 989	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	7h 04m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 43m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	7h 29m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:00 → ATL 16:38DL 988	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	7h 49m	99%	77%
American Details →	LGA 16:58 → MIA 19:54AA 3135	3h 16m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	8h 01m	96%	73%
American Details →	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 17:02 → VPS 17:50AA 5201 · flown by PSA	6h 40m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 18:59 → ATL 22:24DL 970	51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	5h 30m	67%	55%
American Details →	LGA 18:46 → MIA 22:00AA 3088	1h 10m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 13m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON