Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:16, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1379 Southwest	LGB 08:00	HNL 11:00	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 869 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 07:00	HNL 09:50	11%	3%	0.8%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LGB 08:16 → OGG 10:52AS 971	3h 18m Kahului	OGG 14:10 → HNL 15:04AS 1425	9h 48m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON