Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2559 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2559 LGB 07:55 → LAS 09:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2628 LGB 18:43 → LAS 19:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2559 Southwest	LGB 07:55	LAS 09:07	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2582 Southwest	LGB 09:56	LAS 11:08	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2560 Southwest	LGB 12:41	LAS 13:53	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2272 Southwest	LGB 19:58	LAS 21:10	35%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2861 Southwest	LGB 14:00	LAS 15:12	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 2628 Southwest	LGB 18:43	LAS 19:55	39%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON