Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3496 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3496 LGB 08:02 → OAK 09:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1150 LGB 19:50 → OAK 21:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3496 Southwest	LGB 08:02	OAK 09:33	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3946 Southwest	LGB 11:22	OAK 12:52	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3881 Southwest	LGB 14:10	OAK 15:41	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1150 Southwest	LGB 19:50	OAK 21:20	26%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON